Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period January 21 - January 27, 2022

Activity level: mostly very low to low 
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B2.0-B4.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 90-105
Events: class C (0-5/period), class M (0-1/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 11-100

Martina Pavelkova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 21 - January 27, 2022

Quiet: Jan 22 - 23
Unsettled: Jan 21 - 22, 25 - 27
Active: Jan 24 - 25
Minor storm: Jan 24
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
AFter the last active and minor storm events (at the Budkov observatory, 
minor storm event have been recorded at January 14, 16, 18 and 19) we 
expect geomagnetic activity decrease to unsettled (January 21 - 22) or 
quiet to unsettled (January 22 - 23) level. Then, starting at Monday, 
January 24, other active or minor storm events are possible. AT the end 
of currently forecasted period, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions 
return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 21 - January 27, 2022

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
 - January 20, 2022
(Free continuation of my Earth's magnetic field activity predictions, published
between 1978 - 2021.)

We have been able to observe four to eight groups of sunspots on the Sun
over the past seven days. They are now mostly in the western hemisphere,
 therefore  solar flux has been declining.
And suddenly a bang!
This morning (January 20) we could observe (as a small surprise) a nice
moderate-sized solar flare near the northwestern limb of the solar disc.
With a maximum at 0601 UTC. It caused the Dellinger effect in the Indian
Ocean region for tens of minutes, followed by type II and IV solar radio
noise bursts, which confirmed the outburst of CME (but plasma cloud likely
will miss Earth).
Now we are facing a gradual decline in solar activity.
Larger geomagnetic disturbances are expected in early February again. Their
more accurate prediction will depend on the further development of the
sunspot groups that are now located around the eastern limb of the solar
disk.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.E U

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