Weekly forecast

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Forecast issued date:

Solar activity forecast for the period January 15 - January 21, 2021

Activity level: mostly very low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A0.5 - A2.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 72-77 f.u.
Events: class C (0-1/period), class M (0/period), class X (0/period),
proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-25

Bozena Solarova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 15 - January 21, 2021

Quiet: Jan 15 - 17, 21
Unsettled: Jan 17 - 20
Active: Jan  18 - 19
Minor storm: unlikely Jan 18 - 19
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
Next week, we expect the main unsettled episode between Monday, January 18, and Wednesday, January 20. 
Till this event, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions. Within this unsettled period, some isolated active events are possible.
We do not expect any storming event next week but, within the unsettled-to-active episode, it is not excluded.
The last day, Thursday, January 21, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 15 - February 10, 2021

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: January 22, 28 - 30, February 4, 10
quiet to unsettled on: January 23, 25, 27, February 5 - 6, 9
quiet to active on: January 15 - 16, 21, 24, 26, 31, February 1, 3
unsettled to active: January 17 - 20, February 2, 7 - 8
active to disturbed: -
 
Solar wind will intensify on: January (19 - 20,) 21, (25 - 27, 31)
February (1,) 2 - 3
 
Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are
  ambiguous and changing indications.
 
F. K. Janda, OK1HH
(from Czech Propagation Interested Group
compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January 1978).
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, janda(at)planetum.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU
 

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