Solar activity forecast for the period January 13 - January 19, 2017


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A5.0-A9.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 65-85 f.u.
Events: class C (0-1/period), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-45

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz


Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 13 - January 19, 2017


Quiet: Jan 14 - 16
Unsettled: Jan 13, 17, 19
Active: Jan 17 - 18
Minor storm: possible Jan 17 - 18
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
For the Budkov observatory, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions to
Tuesday, Jan 17. This day, we expect active episode arrival because of
positively charged equatorial coronal hole whose gulf is currently visible
at the east edge of solar disk. We expect the active conditions to the end
of forecasted period, the storming event is possible at most at Jan 17.
Next day, we expect active conditions persistence and, Jan 19, partial
decrease to unsettled conditions.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)


Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 13 - February 8, 2017


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on January 16, 26
mostly quiet on January 13, 24 - 25
quiet to unsettled on January 14 - 15, 23, 29, 31, February 5
quiet to active on January 17, 20, 22, 27, 30, February 3 - 4, 6, 8
active to disturbed on January 18 - 19, 21, 28, February 1 - 2, 7

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on January 18 - 20, (21 - 24,) 26, (31,) February (1 - 5,) 6 - 7

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Observed indicia of upcoming MAJOR CHANGES in solar activity!
... Therefore, the current forecast is less reliable ...

Beware of paraskavedekatriafobia tomorrow.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1MGW gave up, so OK1HH alone again, compiling weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz