Solar activity forecast for the period January 20 - January 26, 2017


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A5.5-B1.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 60-90 f.u.
Events: class C (0-1/day), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 11-65

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz


Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 20 - January 26, 2017


Quiet: Jan 24 - 26
Unsettled: Jan 20 - 23
Active: possible Jan 20, 22
Minor storm:  0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
First half of forecasted period, we expect at most unsettled conditions.
We expect only isolated active episodes probable today (Jan 19) and
Saturday (Jan 22). The at most unsettled conditions should persist to
Monday, Jan 23. Then, January 24 - 26, we expect geomagnetic activity
decrease to quiet (quiet to unsettled, respectively) level.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)


Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 20 - February 15, 2017


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on January 25 - 26, February 10, 13 - 14 
mostly quiet on January 24, 30, February 6, 9, 11 - 12 
quiet to unsettled on January 23, 27, 31, February 1, 3 
quiet to active on January 20 - 22, 28 - 29, February 7 - 8 
active to disturbed on January February 2, 4 - 5, 15 

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on January 20 - 21, (22 - 25,) 26, (31,) February (1 - 5,) 
9, (15)

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Observed indicia of upcoming MAJOR CHANGES in solar activity!
  Therefore, the current forecast is less reliable.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1MGW gave up, so OK1HH alone again, compiling weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz