Solar activity forecast for the period January 27 - February 2, 2017


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A6.5-B2.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 70-90 f.u.
Events: class C (0-3/day), class M (0-1/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 11-80

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz


Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 27 - February 2, 2017


Quiet: Jan 26, 29 - 30
Unsettled: Jan 31 - Feb 2
Active: possible Jan 30, Feb 2
Minor storm:  possible but unlikely Feb 2
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
Generally, we expect at most unsettled conditions with isolated active
episode. The active episode is most probable at the end of forecasted
preiod about February 2. The active episode is also possible Jan 27 - 28,
we expect an isolated event.
The other days, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)


Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 27 - February 22, 2017


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on January 27, February 1, 11 - 12, 14, 22
mostly quiet on January 30, February 9 - 10, 20 - 21
quiet to unsettled on January 31, February 13, 19
quiet to active on January 28 - 29, February 3 - 5, 15, 17
active to disturbed on February 2, 6 - 7 (8, 16, 18)

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on January 26, (31,) February (1 - 5,) 9, (15)

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Third week observed indicia of upcoming enhancement in solar activity.
  Therefore, the current forecast is less reliable.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since 1978
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz