Solar activity forecast for the period August 12 - August 18, 2022
Activity level: mostly Low (Aug 11-13 ) and mostly Low to Moderate (Aug 13-18)
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B3.5 - C0.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 112-116 (Aug 5-8) and 112-109 (Aug 8-11)
Events: class C (1-6/day), class M (0-1/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 54 -86
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 12 - August 18, 2022
Quiet: Aug 11, 13 - 14
Unsettled: Aug 11 - 13, 15 - 16
Active: Aug 17 - 18
Minor storm: Aug 17
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
After the last active event at Monday, August 8, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level till August 16. Then, the next active
event can reach minor storm level.
We expect geomagnetic activity culmination at the end of currently forecasted period. Since Wednesday, August 17, we expect active conditions return.
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere August 12 - August 18, 2022
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – August 11, 2022
(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.)
A geomagnetic disturbance rarely triggers completely unexpectedly. And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located (or selected from several locations). Moreover, lasting five days. All this happened between August 7th and 11th.
At higher latitudes, the "STEVE" phenomenon was sighted on August 7 (which stands for Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement). STEVE is a recent discovery. It looks like an aurora, but it's not.
It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the ionosphere, when shortwave propagation conditions improved. The development continued with a deterioration of propagation conditions in the negative phase on August 8. Followed by generally below average development in the following days. With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches maximum (expected on 12-13 August). They are also called the "Tears of St. Lawrence".
Starting August 12 onwards, we expect a longer mostly quiet period.
F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz