Weekly forecast

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Solar activity forecast for the period March 22 - March 28, 2024

Activity level: mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B8.1 - C3.4
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 131-205
Events: class C (1-8/day), class M (0-8/period), class X (0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 73-201

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 22 - March 28, 2024

Quiet: Mar 24 - 27
Unsettled: Mar 23, 27 - 28
Active: possible Mar 21 - 22, 28
Minor storm: Mar 21
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

We expect the nearest active event within coming hours. Then, at the start of coming weekend, we expect at most unsettled conditions.
Since Saturday, March 23, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level.
At the end of currently forecasted period, another unsettled to active event is possible about March 28.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV) 

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere March 22 - March 28, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – March 21, 2024

Solar activity on average continues to increase towards the cycle 25 maximum. This included a shower of protons that came from the admittedly smaller in X-ray intensity but primarily long-lived flare on the morning hours UT of March 15. The particle density peaked a day later when the proton event reached S1. High polar cap absorption (PCA) of radio waves was recorded at the same time.

The geomagnetic field remains mostly calm, with the occurrence of short active intervals. An increase in geomagnetic activity was expected after the eruption of 17 March. A partial CME halo was observed and ejected particles were expected in the vicinity of the Earth first on 20 March, then on the evening of 20 March, and then on the morning of 21 March. The result was an increase in MUF already in the forenoon UT.  An increase in the Earth's magnetic field activity have occurred in the afternoon.

The new sunspot group AR3615, which has emerged in the southeast of the solar disk, although not yet large, has a complex magnetic structure. This configuration increases the probability of magnetic reconnection during a solar flare. Especially if an X-class solar flare occurs, the probability of CME will increase.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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