Weekly forecast

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Solar activity forecast for the period May 24 - May 30, 2024

Activity level: mostly moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.0 - C6.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 150-220
Events: class C (4-10/day), class M (0-10/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 80-260

Michael Vavra
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 24 - May 30, 2024

Quiet: May 24, 26, 29
Unsettled: May 25 - 27
Active: May 25, 27 - 28
Minor storm: about May 27
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Currently, geomagnetic field is quiet.
Within the coming three days, we expect possible more unsettled conditions with a possible isolated active event.
More disturbed conditions with possible minor storm event can be expected at the end of currently predicted period, i.e. about May 27 - 28.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 24 - May 30, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – May 23, 2024

Large sunspot groups, during the last rotation of the Sun marked as AR3663 and AR3664, are still on the Sun's far side. But AR3663 will appear on the northeastern limb of the solar disk in a few days. And a few days later, so will AR3664.

But even the current solar activity is by no means small, and moderate flares are observed almost daily. Mostly, though, they cause only short-term increases in attenuation at lower shortwave frequencies. Even more often, the sporadic E layer causes fluctuations in signal strength, but its influence on propagation at the shortest shortwave bands is still mostly not crucial. However, the peak of its season is approaching.

The major geomagnetic disturbance of 10 May was followed by a rather unsettled development with irregular alternation of calm and disturbed days. This type of development will continue for the rest of the month. Increased solar activity and major geomagnetic disturbances are more likely to be expected in June.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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