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Solar activity forecast for the period October 11 - October 17, 2024

Activity level: moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C2.4 - C6.1
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 150-320
Events: class C (3-16/day), class M (4-16/period), class X (0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 120-250

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 11 - October 17, 2024

Quiet: Oct 14, 16
Unsettled: Oct 13 - 14, 16 - 17
Active: Oct 12 - 13, 16 - 17
Minor storm: Oct 11, 15
Major storm:  Oct 11 - 12
Severe storm: Oct 11

We expect the storming event during the coming hours.
The highest geomagnetic activity is expected till Saturday, October 12.

Then, since Sunday, October 13, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to at most unsettled level (seldomly, some quiet days can occur).
The other active episode with possible storming effect is possible about Tuesday, October 15. Then, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to an unsettled level again.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere October 11 - October 17, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – October 10, 2024

During the first ten days of October, the number of sunspot groups dropped from eleven to five, but the eruptive activity of the two largest sunspot groups did not decrease. Not only are moderate flares (M-classes, of which 34 were observed) frequent, but large events (X-classes) are also relatively common (five effects were observed, including one proton flare on 9 October). Several CMEs (coronal mass ejections) have also been observed.

After the two most active regions in particular moved to the western half of the solar disk, geomagnetic activity has increased significantly since 6 October. The most significant impacts on the state of the ionosphere was observed on 8 October. This will be followed by a very slow return to normal, lasting several days. A calm development can be expected since mid-October.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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