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Solar activity forecast for the period December 08 - December 14, 2023

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B9.0 - C2.2
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 125-175
Events: class C (2-9/day), class M (0-6/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 80 - 175

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 08 - December 14, 2023

Quiet: Dec 8 - 10
Unsettled: Dec 10 - 12, 14
Active: Dec 11 - 13
Minor storm: possible Dec 11, 13
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

After the last disturbed day peaking at Friday, December 1 (at the Budkov observatory, the local K-index reached level 5 four times uninterruptedly), we expect temporary geomagnetic activity decrease within the three coming  days.
About Monday, December 11, geomagnetic activity increase is once again possible. We can expect an active event between Monday, December 11, and Wednesday, December 13.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere December 08 - December 14, 2023

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – November 23, 2023

After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave propagation conditions were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on November 16, which threw a CME almost directly towards the Earth. We expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet days followed on November 19-20. Then, despite seven new sunspot groups and calm in the Earth's magnetosphere, propagation conditions did not improve until November 20.

Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in CONDX (at intervals of 10-13 UT and 16-19 UT).

The following evolution could be expected - there was a deterioration of propagation conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration was short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar activity, an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and worse days.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

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