Weekly forecast

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Solar activity forecast for the period November 25 - December 01, 2022

Activity level: mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B2.5 - B8.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 100-125
Events: class C (0-5/day), class M (0-4/period), class X (0/period),
proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 65 - 120

Martina Pavelkova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 25 - December 01, 2022

Quiet: Nov 29 - 30
Unsettled: Nov 25 - 30
Active: Nov 25, 27 - 28, Dec 01
Minor storm: possible Nov 25, 28, Dec 01
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Next week, we expect geomagnetic activity enhancement. The mean level is 
expected at an unsettled degree.
Minor storming event are possible about November 25, 28, and December 1. 
Nevertheless, the probability is lower, and, we expect active episodes 
(with local K-index = 4).
Between these days, we expect at most unsettled conditions.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere November 25 - December 01, 2022

(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity,
published in the years 1978 – 2021.)

Over the past seven days, I have been reminded again of the Woody Allen
quote, "If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans." At
first, the authors of the forecasts of the Earth's magnetic field activity
(including Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Geomagnetic Observatory) predicted an
increase to the level of a disturbance on November 17. After that, most of
the authors already agreed on November 19. In the following days, the
forecasts were pushed forward, finally to 21-22 November. And was there
anything? Nothing! Solar activity dropped slightly. The geomagnetic field
was quiet except for November 18 and 21. The development of shortwave
propagation conditions was erratic, but not bad, with improvements on
November 17, 19 and 24.
For forecasting, we can sometimes use observations obtained using a
technique called "helioseismology". Its map of the sun's far side on
November 22nd showed a huge active region. The corresponding heliographic
longitude will appear at the eastern limb of the solar disk in about 10
days. After that, we expect an increase in activity and, of course, an
improvement in shortwave propagation conditions.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

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