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Solar activity forecast for the period September 23 - September 29, 2022

Solar activity forecast for the period September 23 - September 29, 2022

Activity level: Low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C7.6 - M7.9
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 130-150
Events: class C (17-20/day), class M (1-3/period/day), class X (0-0/period/day),
proton (0-0/period/day)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 76 - 164

Jozef Zabka
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 23 - September 29, 2022

Quiet: Sep 25 - 27
Unsettled: Sep 24 - 27
Active: Sep 22 - 23, 28 - 29
Minor storm: Sep 23, 29
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Next week, we expect two active episodes. The first one can be expected during tonight and at Friday, September 23,
and the other is expected at the end of currently forecasted period, about September 28 - 29.
Since Saturday, September 24, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to at most unsettled level. 
Between Sunday, September 25, and Tuesday, September 27, the unsettled conditions can be alternated by quiet intervals.
Then, about September 29, we expect active conditions return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere September 23 - September 29, 2022

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – September 22, 2022
(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.)

The setting sunspot region of AR3098 still managed to produce an impulsive M8-class solar flare on 16 September at 0949 UT. A sudden ionospheric disturbance (SWF, or Dellinger effect), affected frequencies below 25 MHz for an hour after the flare.
On September 17, we expected the high-speed solar wind flow from the northern coronal hole to produce a G1-class geomagnetic storm, but we registered it a day later. Whereupon the old region AR3088 appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk and was given the new number AR3102. Although it appeared to be in decay, it was growing again.
On September 18, we could observe five M-class solar flares in the setting region of AR3098. However, none of them produced an earthward CME.
On September 20, another large group of spots appeared over the southeastern edge of the Sun, joining the shortly before rising and growing AR3105 - which doubled in size the next day.
On September 21, NOAA predicted that a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm might occur on September 23. A high-speed solar wind stream is expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field.
On September 22, we could observe the sunspot group complex AR3105-3107. The chance of a geoeffective flare should increase in the coming days as they enter the Earth's impact zone.
The geomagnetic field activity was somewhat lower than expected.
Shortwave propagation conditions first pleasantly surprised us around September 17. Therefoe we expected them to improve further as the autumnal equinox approached. But it didn't happen :) They remained at average levels, whereby the explanation for why this happened lies in the effect of the solar wind on the Earth's ionosphere.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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