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Solar activity forecast for the period May 14 - May 20, 2021

Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A5.5- A8.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 73-78 f.u.
Events: class C (0-3/period), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-50

Bozena Solarova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 14 - May 20, 2021

Quiet:  May 15, 18 - 19
Unsettled: May 14 - 18, 20
Active:  possible May 20
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
After the last geomagnetic storm when the local K-index at Budkov observatory has reached level 6, 
we expect geomagnetic activity decrease during the following days. Till Monday, May 17, 
we expect yet at most unsettled conditions. Since this day, we expect at most quiet conditions return.
At the end of currently forecasted period, about Thursday, May 20, unsettled conditions with possible 
isolated active episode are possible as response to current active stage.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 14 - June 08, 2021

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: May 19, 25 - 26, (27 - 31)
quiet to unsettled on: May 21, 24, 31, June 1 - 8
quiet to active on: May (14 - 16, 18, 20 - 23)
unsettled to active: May (17)
active to disturbed: -
 
Solar wind will intensify on: May (16,) 17 - 18,
(21 - 25,) 28 - 30
 
Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.
 
F. K. Janda, OK1HH
(from Czech Propagation Interested Group
compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January 1978).
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, janda(at)planetum.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU
 

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