Weekly forecast

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Solar activity forecast for the period June 14 - June 20, 2024

Activity level: mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.0 - C6.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 131-199
Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (0-8/period), class X (0-2/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 72-190

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 14 - June 20, 2024

Quiet: Jun 14 - 15, 18 - 19
Unsettled: June 15 - 18, 19 - 20
Active: June 16 - 17,
Minor storm: unlikely Jun 16, 20
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Yesterday, a new CME had been visible. Nevertheless, we do not expect any storming event within the coming days.
Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions. An active event can occur about the coming weekend because of the coronal hole 45/+3 and other unsettled to active conditions can be expected at the end of currently forecasted period.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV) 

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere June 14 - June 20, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – June 13, 2024

Despite the fact that the large sunspot group responsible for the geomagnetic disturbances and the beautiful auroras of May 10-11 is now on the far side of the Sun, its flares are showering the Earth's surroundings with a rain of protons. On the whole, however, there is no doubt that after its reappearance at the eastern edge of the solar disk, solar activity will again increase significantly, with solar flux values exceeding 200 s.f.u. in late June and early July.

For now, however, we will be content with the consequences of a slight decrease in overall solar activity, although moderate solar flares are no exception. Upswells in geomagnetic activity occur only occasionally and most days are quiet to unsettled. Summer prevails in the Earth's northern hemisphere, and sporadic E layer events contribute even more than solar events to the erratic shortwave propagation conditions here.

With the exception of the two largest active regions, however, there is little going on at present on the far side of the Sun, and so July already seems to be considerably quieter than May and June were.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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