Weekly forecast

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Solar activity forecast for the period March 29 - April 03, 2024

Activity level: mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B8.1 - C3.4
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 131-205
Events: class C (1-8/day), class M (0-8/period), class X (0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 73-201

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 29 - April 03, 2024

Quiet: Mar 31, Apr 1 - 2
Unsettled: Mar 29 - 30, Apr 4
Active: possible Apr 2- 3
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

After the last major storm peaking at Sunday, March 24, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease during the coming days.
Another geomagnetic activity increase is possible about Tuesday, April 2, when another active event is possible. Nevertheless, we do not expect any storming event next week.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV) 

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere March 29 - April 03, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – March 28, 2024

The period without stronger disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field was incredibly long: 19 December 2023 to 20 April 2024, or three whole months. But it had to end at some point. Especially since we're near the peak of the 11-year solar cycle.

Around March 20, we were expecting the rising of a larger sunspot group in the northeastern solar disk. It happened and we saw AR3614. The bigger surprise, however, was the simultaneous emergence of another group, designated AR3615, which surprised us both by its size and dispersion and by the number of moderate flares produced, which totaled eleven on March 23.

Although AR3614 was the source of a much smaller number of flares, it made up for everything with a large proton flare, accompanied by a CME, on 23 March with a maximum at 0133 UT. The Earth was bombarded by energetic protons on the following days, while simultaneously being hit by particle clouds from flares in both active regions. Which couldn't have resulted in anything other than the development of a magnetic storm. Its intensity was greatest on April 24.

The disturbance did begin on April 23, however, with an increase in MUF, or so-called positive phase. A significant decrease in MUF and an increase in the attenuation of radio waves in the ionosphere occurred since 24 March. The significant deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions lasted until 26 March. A return to slightly above-average propagation conditions can only be spoken of from 28 March. Thus, we have the maximum of the solar cycle with everything.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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