Weekly forecast
Data type:
Legacy format
Legacy format
Forecast issued date:
Activity level: mostly moderate X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B9.5 - C1.8 Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 145-65 Events: class C (4-10/day), class M (0-3/day), class X (0-1/period), proton (0/period) Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 130 - 280 Martina Pavelkova RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
Quiet: Sep 24 - 27 Unsettled: Sep 22 - 24, 27 - 28 Active: Sep 23, 28 Minor storm: Sep 28 Major storm: 0 Severe storm: 0 After the last active episode with minor storm event (at Budkov observatory, the highest local K-index peaked at level 5), we expect geomagnetic activity decrese to unsettled level wduring coming two days. At the start of the new week, since Monday, September 25, we expect at most quiet conditions till the end of currently forecasted interval. At the end of this weekly forecast, another active event with posible storming event is expectable. Tomas Bayer RWC Prague Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague Department of Geomagnetism Budkov observatory (BDV)
Although the site SolarHam.net (https://solarham.net/, launched on March 15, 2006, created and still maintained solely by Kevin VE3EN) is primarily intended for amateur radio users, it is also very well regarded by professional astronomers. In addition to information about the Sun, it contains everything needed to understand the causes of changes in the ionosphere, and also provides an overview and forecast of the Earth's magnetic field activity. On Thursday, September 21, we read: 'Solar activity is predicted to remain at low (C-Flares) to moderate (M-Flares) levels during the next 24 hours. AR 3435 is considered the most likely region to produce a moderate to strong solar flare." The information can be supplemented by saying that the level of solar activity has been rising in recent days, and this rise was accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 400 km/s to over 600 km/s between 18-20 September. In particular, the solar wind proton influx increased significantly on 18 September; moreover, a geomagnetic disturbance with intensity G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) took place on 18-19 September. The Earth's ionosphere responded to these events with a significant decrease in MUF, especially since 18 September. Shortwave propagation conditions were above average for the last time on 10-12 September, including a positive phase of the disturbance on the latter day. Around the equinox we usually expect improvement, but now it was the opposite as a result of disturbances. As another very good source of information, I can particularly recommend the Space Weather Monitor (https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm), as it also contains the most important data on the Earth's ionosphere. F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU
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