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Solar activity forecast for the period March 01 - March 07, 2024

Activity level: mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.1 - C3.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 148-191
Events: class C (1-8/day), class M (2-10/period), class X (0-4/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 80-185

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 01 - March 07, 2024

Quiet: Mar 1, 3, 6 - 7
Unsettled: Mar 2 - 6
Active: possible Mar 4 - 5
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled level, generally.
More unsettled episode with possible active event is possible about February 4 - 5.
We do not expect any storming event next week.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere March 01 - March 07, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – Febrary 29, 2024

Over the past seven days, we have seen the deflection of an active region of AR3590 on the Sun, 760 millionths of the size of the solar disk. On February 25, it already occupied an area of 1450 millionths, making it the largest group of spots so far since the beginning of the 25th cycle. It produced its largest and extra proton flares on February 21-22, including three X-class flares in 23 hours. The largest of these, X6.3 on 22 February, with a maximum at 2324 UT, was the most important flare since the beginning of Cycle 25.

Proton flares were no exception and caused an absorption in the polar cap (PCA). The first of these was recorded on 9 February in the already setting region AR3575. At the same time, there was a region AR3576 in the southeast of the solar disk, which will rise again in the next few days, so we do not have to worry about a decrease in solar activity.

With the exception of the unsettled days of February 25-27, the geomagnetic field was mostly calm. We expect a similar pattern in the coming weeks. Ideally, the mostly calm development could last until the spring equinox. If this happens, shortwave propagation conditions will be mostly above average.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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