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Solar activity forecast for the period June 09 - June 15, 2023

Activity level: mostly moderate 
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.2 - C3.8 
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 145-185
Events: class C (2-15/day), class M (0-5/day), class X (0-2/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 110-260

Jana Hrabalova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 09 - June 15, 2023

Quiet: Jun 10, 13 - 14
Unsettled: Jun 9 - 12
Active: Jun 8, 11-12, 15
Minor storm: Jun 8, 15
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions with possible 
active event about Sunday, June 11.
Another active one with possible minor storming event is possible the 
last day of forecasted period, i.e. Thursday, June 15.
Other days, we expect quiet to unsettled level.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere June 09 - June 15, 2023

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
– June 8, 2023

In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly elevated
level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.This, together
with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has resulted in a gradual
increase in the daily maximum of the highest usable frequencies of the F2
ionospheric layer. At the same time, however, the attenuation in the lower
ionospheric layers grew, which manifested as earlier morning closures and
later evening openings of the longer shortwave bands.

Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach Earth -
with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UT, the solar wind speed jumped from
340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's magnetic field activity
increased, usually only to K = 3.

The situation was further complicated by the sporadic E layer, whose season
is approaching its peak. Inhomogeneities in the sporadic E layer appeared
quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the ionograms.
As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as well
manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere of the
northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the improvement
when summer ends there - which fortunately will be much earlier than summer
ends in the troposphere.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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